KEY TAKEAWAYS Markets are positioning for the first Fed rate cut in 10 years. Consumer inflation has weakened, but we (and the Fed) believe the slowdown is temporary. Improving economic conditions support a continued Fed pause. Click here to download a PDF of this...
KEY TAKEAWAYS First quarter GDP growth was surprisingly strong. Net exports and inventories were significant contributors amid ongoing trade tensions. We expect consumer and business spending to carry economic growth more in future quarters. Click here to download a...
KEY TAKEAWAYS Our Beige Book Barometer climbed from a seven-year low. Strong words increased, but weak words remained elevated as businesses dealt with lower demand. Oil districts’ weakness had a notable impact on the sentiment gauge. Click here to download a PDF of...
KEY TAKEAWAYS Signs of slowing global growth have fueled worries of tepid domestic inflation. Consumer price growth has softened, but producer price and wage growth remain solid. We expect consumer price inflation to pick up as global headwinds subside. Click here to...
KEY TAKEAWAYS The U.S. economy has suffered from seasonal first-quarter weakness recently. Seasons change, and growth typically rebounds as the year progresses Leading indicators in jobs, manufacturing, and markets suggest economic acceleration. Click here to download...
KEY TAKEAWAYS We’ve picked our Final Four, or factors, to watch in this leg of the economic expansion. The Fed’s patience is appropriate in guiding the U.S. economy through late-cycle volatility A rebound in global conditions, capital expenditures, and sentiment may...
